Beware the Sabato slant

Probably we've all seen Larry Sabato on TV during election season. The UVA political scientist is usually portrayed as an unbiased analyst, concerned mainly with the facts, especially statistics, and with political predictions. Well, in this world there is no such thing as "unbiased". In Larry's case, his writings reveal him to be a liberal through and through. The excerpts below from a recent essay of his illustrate this. (The entire text of his essay is linked here.)

Now Larry Sabato is a halfway reasonable guy, as liberals go. It isn't so much his political orientation that I object to, except in the sense that he's old enough to know better. What I object to mainly is the pretense that he's unbiased. That's also what I loathe and despise about most of the media, that they lie not only in the pictures they paint of the world, but even in what they themselves are all about.

Regarding the substance of Sabato's comments:

It is laughable to describe today's GOP as being "fiercely right-wing" and "harsh" in its conservativism. In fact, in the past dozen or so years the party has degenerated into confusion, so that today it doesn't know what it stands for. Conservatives, feeling betrayed, are among the harshest critics of this GOP, and many have advocated forming a third party. For a respected polical analyst to state the opposite of the clear facts is jaw-dropping.

Sabato says it is surprising that a conservative politician would advocate civil unions (as opposed to the oxymoronic "gay marriage") for homosexuals. Apparently whenever a conservative doesn't fit his mental model of "harsh", it is surprising to him.

My advice to liberals: When your preconceived model conflicts with the observed data, stop trying to change the data. It's your fundamental model that's wrong, so you should change it to match the data. However, if liberals did this, they would cease to be liberals.

Also, the stance he describes is not "moderate". As used today, a "moderate" is someone who doesn't know what he believes, and whose highest value is just to cave in to the lunatics and all get along.

Regarding the last point below, I asked David Yepsin whether the conventional wisdom was correct about Romney's Mormonism hurting him in Iowa. Yepsin replied that it both helped and hurt Romney among Iowa Republicans, and as far as he could tell the net effect was a wash. At least in Iowa, Yepsin clearly knows more about this than Sabato does. Sabato was just speculating from a liberal perspective, as if his mental model of the world were as good as actually knowing the facts.

Presidency 2012: The Invisible Primary BeginsA Commentary By Larry J. Sabato Friday, May 08, 2009

We at the Crystal Ball must beg your forgiveness. With fewer than 1,300 days left until the next general election for President, we have failed to offer a single analysis of this historic upcoming battle. With humility, and hoping for mercy, we submit this first update on 2012.

(snip)

Two moderate-conservative Republicans who are fresh faces could give the GOP more of a fighting chance in 2012. Two-term Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota has found a way to win in a Democratic state without abandoning most traditional conservative positions. He is also in his 40s, with a blue collar background, possessing a pleasant demeanor and a sense of humor. (Having been on John McCain's short list for running-mate, he joked to this analyst after Palin was selected that he was "just one chromosome away from the vice presidency.") Whether Pawlenty intends to run for President is uncertain, and he has to decide about offering for a third term as Governor in 2010--always a risk in a Blue state. Will Republicans even accept a less harsh version of conservatism that isn't located in the Sunbelt?

An intriguing dark horse candidate is two-term Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. A proponent of gay civil unions and some other surprisingly moderate stances despite hailing from one of the nation's three or four most conservative states, Huntsman is openly testing the waters, and arguing that Republicans are headed for a long spell in the wilderness without a major ideological facelift. Wealthy and smooth in his public appearances, Huntsman makes a vital point, but undoubtedly he will strain the patience and tolerance of a fiercely right-wing party. His tiny base--Utah has but five electoral votes--doesn't help, and his Mormonism possibly will be a detrimental factor with many fundamentalist Christians, just as for Romney. (snip)

Larry J. Sabato is the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Come to 5/1 Media Panel

What forces in America's economy and culture are threatening the survival of newspapers and diverting audiences to other information sources? What are the consequences for us as citizens in a free society? How can we take charge in the emerging new paradigm; or can we? Discuss all this with Centennial Institute panelists at Issue Friday, May 1, 10:00-11:00 am, on the Colorado Christian University campus. Where: CCU School of Business Room 102

What: "Rocky Times for Colorado News Media"

Who: David Kopel & Jason Salzman Former Media Critics for the Rocky Mountain News Panel & Open Forum Moderated by John Andrews

Reservations recommended * RSVP to Centennial@ccu.edu or call 303.963.3424

Directions to CCU Campus in Lakewood: From Garrison, go east two short blocks on Cedar, park on your right. Continue east into the campus, toward flagpole. School of Business is the 2nd low building on your right.

The Centennial Institute, directed by John Andrews, was established in 2009 as a project of Colorado Christian University. We sponsor research, events, and publications to enhance public understanding of the most important issues facing our state and nation. By proclaiming Truth, we aim to foster faith, family, and freedom, teach citizenship, and renew the spirit of 1776.

News reporting not enough

These are the times that try journalists' souls, to paraphrase Thomas Paine, as newspapers try mightily to survive in an exponentially expanding electronic world. Radio and television were once thought to be the death of newspapers, and now the Internet, with its multiple applications and formats, is greatly feared. This is no phantom. Many afternoon dailies bit the dust in the 1950s when news was broadcast to our television sets at dinner time. Now even morning newspapers are disappearing while the Internet thrives. Kathleen Parker, the sometime conservative columnist with the neat turn of phrase and low tolerance for all lacking that gift, whatever their politics, blames critics of media bias while singing the praises of the underappreciated news reporting function as the foundation of our free republic.

Let's sort out of the salient observations from the nonsense here. There is no denying that years of so-called media bashing have had their effect. Millions of Americans now understand that the major media regularly skewer conservative Republicans and favor liberal Democrats under the guise of "objective news coverage." That means nothing more than utilizing the format of the standard inverted-pyramid news story to engage in selective reporting and quoting. It is an easy task for bright journalists to hide their partisanship while "giving the facts."

Unless the journalist is a god, his point of view will color his accounts, although there is still plenty of room for full and fair summary and explanation. Otherwise, every newspaper editorial or op-ed, and articles in opinion journals, have to be written off as hopelessly biased, which is absurd. Every article should be judged on it merits, regardless of format.

When Thomas Jefferson was President of the United States, he received letters from an aspiring Virginia journalist who asked him his opinion of what standards should govern newspapers. Jefferson wrote a lengthy reply, including a scathing indictment of the press. His most succinct and telling advice was to restrict the newspaper to "true facts and sound principles only." Not only a commitment to factual accuracy but to the principles of a free government were necessary, Jefferson emphasized.

For critics of media critics like Kathleen Parker, the main thing is factual accuracy with sound principles as only an afterthought. She rightly cherishes a free press as necessary to preserving our form of government, but she apparently has given little thought to what principles should govern that press beyond news reporting. As one of those pundits whom she obviously chooses not to deride, she performs the equally important, if not more important, function of contributing argumentation to the nation's deliberations on public policy.

But that is only half the matter. Commitment to factual accuracy is more than a good habit. It arises from minds devoted to finding the truth and doing what is right. Bad reporting, as Walter Lippmann wrote long ago, is akin to false testimony in a courtroom which, if done with knowledge, is perjury. Only a citizenry habituated to some semblance of moral and intellectual virtue practices, and honors, factual accuracy.

But Lippmann wrongly believed that factual accuracy in the media and the government would suffice to refine public opinion and improve public policy, at least he said so early in his career. Doubtless this man who became the premier "pundit" for half a century in this country appreciated the importance of informed commentary as well.

Someone once said that "Figures don't lie but liars can figure." He could have been referring to news reporters. The mere inclusion of multiple facts in a newspaper article is no guarantee of its accuracy, much less its contribution to public deliberation. By the same token, the proliferation of punditry on the Internet is hardly cause for alarm. However much we may cherish newspapers, many trees have to die to maintain that production. The press does not exhaust all media possibilities, and neither does news reporting.

There is much to admire in the news reporter's habit of presenting both sides of an argument, but there are difficulties. For one thing, understanding a point of view requires more than just the ability to gather facts. It means suspending judgment until one has fully understood the position under review. This is even more difficult (though not impossible) if you think the point of view is wrong. Add to this the space or time limitations of all media (not to mention many people's short attention spans), and justice may not be done.

What too often emerges is an oversimplified, truncated, almost child-like version of what someone is saying that effectively trivializes what should be understood as part of a serious debate over public policy.

Fortunately for sports fans, sports sections are often the healthiest in the newspaper, fueled by intense reader interest and largely unambiguous subject matter (somebody wins, somebody loses). But imagine ball games being reported as if they were political. "The Angels defeated the A's today, as umpires permitted more runs by Los Angeles." Or: "The Lakers scored more points than the Rockets last night as the referees maintained the tradition, questioned by some, of restricting the playing time to 48 minutes."

Sure, politics are controversial, but our fundamental political principles and our Constitution provide a standard and impose limits. Sports are also controversial, but true sportsmen would not permit changing the rules to accommodate their desires. In both cases, we must know what is right as well as what is a true fact.

'Rest of story' suffers with Rocky gone

Just in the first week since the Rocky shut down, think about the state and local stories that were covered less robustly in the absence of a competing metro daily. Three for starters would be: ** Senate Dems seek to bust the 6% constitutional spending limit.

** Senate Dems endorse college subsidies for illegal aliens.

** CU students welcome plagiarist Ward Churchill and terrorist Bill Ayers.

Nothing against the solid reporting and commentary we've read in the Denver Post about these events, but they contain so many deeper levels and cross-currents that no single newspaper can possibly do them justice.

There's a reason people have two eyes and ears; a reason we say two heads are better than one; a reason Scripture says wisdom needs many counselors.

At 90, Paul Harvey, the founding father of opinion radio, was going to leave us one of these days. But how fitting that we lost him on the same weekend when Coloradans lost some of our access to "the rest of the story" with the Rocky's demise.

RMN, RIP: What a loss

E. W. Scripps has announced that Friday will be the last day of publication for the Rocky Mountain News. This is a sad day for Denver and Colorado, and given the state's pivotal position in nationalpolitics, it's not too good for the country, either.

The Rocky always had longer articles, better coverage, and sharper commentary than its surviving rival, the Denver Post. But a tabloid format and a series of poor marketing and business decisions left it unable to compete in the shrinking market for dead-tree-based news.

The Rocky was also one of the main reasons that the more liberal Post didn't become the utterly irresponsible caricature of a newspaper that the Star-Tribune and the Los Angeles Times have turned into. With the Rocky now gone, there will be less pressure on the Post to be a responsible outlet, rather than a mouthpiece for the Democratic party and its affiliates.

In past times, the Post would have picked up the important features and much of the news staff of the Rocky. However, the Post, is facing financial problems of its own, laying off some editorial and management staff, and it's unclear how long it will continue to function, even without direct competition.

It's tempting to say that bloggers and other alternative media can step into the breach, and it may well be that a number of the reporters from the Rocky will try to develop their own sites for a living. And indeed, I'm sure we'll be able to pick up some of the slack.

But there's nothing like being on payroll to have the time to write and develop sources and stories. The Denver Press Club still has a bias against those who don't have major media organizations behind them, which limits credentialing and access to information and newsmakers. There's no question this is a serious loss for the area.