Hopes for stopping the dangerously escalating cycle of violence in the Middle East depend on two old men—Donald Trump, 78, and Benjamin Netanyahu, 75. Beyond their age they have much in common. Both for years have been profoundly controversial figures at the center of their national politics and on the international stage as well.
Adored by supporters and detested by opponents, electorally each has experienced exhilarating victories and shattering defeats. They know each other well and at this moment in history they have an opportunity, working together, to achieve remarkable things in the tumultuous Middle East—as opposed to merely presiding over accelerating chaos.
An under-noticed recent event was the meeting between Elon Musk and an Iranian diplomat at the United Nations. Iran subsequently denied the meeting ever happened—much as Vladimir Putin denied he had any phone call with Donald Trump. However, both events did happen and were assuredly serious encounters.
Secret diplomacy often including unlikely actors is not new or without value. Absent the secret meetings between Henry Kissinger and Chou En-Lai in Pakistan, Richard Nixon would never have achieved his historic opening to China in 1972. Similarly, Robert Kennedy's back-channel communication with a Russian journalist was key to defusing the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
Regardless of who was the initiator, the diplomat in question met with Musk because the latter has a close relationship with Donald Trump, who in turn is similarly linked to Benjamin Netanyahu.
Iran and its murderous proxies, notably Hamas and Hezbollah, have been singularly unnerved by Israel's series of precision assassinations of some of their highest ranking leaders proving there is no refuge anywhere for those who perpetrate the slaughter of innocent Jews. Even more alarming is the looming reimposition by the soon to be inaugurated President Trump of the crippling economic sanctions of his first term—or worse, the threat of an ultimatum to release all American and other hostages or face a US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf, which could shut down Tehran's economy within weeks.
These are highly unlikely developments, many would say, but for the leaders of Iran trying to map a strategy for dealing with a mercurial Trump—who has resorted to swift military retaliation more frequently than his recent predecessors possibilities—they must be considered. Furthermore, such understandable caution would justify the mullahs in authorizing an informal and subsequently deniable outreach to help them gauge their future peril.
President Trump has said his approach to the Middle East is “find a way to stop the killing,” which as a policy premise is hard to assail. Meanwhile Prime Minister Netanyahu has steadfastly resisted President Biden's repeated calls for an immediate “ceasefire,” even when the U.S. began slow-walking the resupply of munitions to the embattled Jewish state. The PM’s reason was that absent meaningful concessions and guarantees from Iran, a ceasefire would allow Hamas to claim victory and Iran to choose the time and manner for resumption of the cycles of violence that have debilitated the entire region for decades.
Key to his decision was the absolute lack of trust between the American President and the Israeli Prime Minister. What now has to weigh most heavily on Iranian leaders is that the recent, corrosive relationship between the leaders of the United States and Israel has now been fundamentally transformed into one of close cooperation and trust—thanks to the American election of November 5th.
Though the parallels are inexact, the mullahs in Teheran faced a very similar dilemma in late 1980 when they had to carefully weigh sharply differing perceptions of the outgoing Democratic President and his Republican successor who had just won a resounding electoral victory while promising dire albeit unspecified consequences for Iran if the American hostages were not released. Absolutely no one thought it purely coincidental that they were released on the very same day that Ronald Reagan was inaugurated as President of the United States.
It is well known that old men retain vivid memories of the long ago. Surely that would include the 85-year-old Ali Khameni now serving in his 35th year as the second Supreme leader of Iran. Ironically Khameni was chosen by his predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to assume the Presidency of Iran in the same year as Reagan became America's President.
The American man of letters Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803-1882) famously stated that “ All History is Biography." Now Trump and Netanyahu will soon make decisions and take momentous actions for good or ill that will influence world history far into the future.
William Moloney studied history and politics at Oxford and the University of London and received his Doctorate from Harvard University. His articles have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the Hill, Washington Post, Washington Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Baltimore Sun, Denver Post, and Human Events.